Climate change and management practices on spatiotemporal variations of ground water resource qualitys

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Fars Agricultural and National Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Shiraz, Iran Organization (AREEO), Shiraz, Iran

2 Qazvin Agricultural and National Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Qazvin, Iran

3 Soil and Water Research Institute, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

This study quantitatively assesses the impacts of drought and overexploitation on the quality of groundwater resources in Fars and Qazvin Provinces and accurately shows the critical points of degradation on relevant maps to identify targeted and evidence-based management strategies. In order to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of various water quality parameters including: total dissolved solids (TDS), sodium ion concentration (Na+), sodium percentage (Na%), salinity (EC), acidity (pH), sodium absorption ratio (SAR), chloride ion concentration (Cl-), sulfate ion concentration (SO42-), total hardness (TH), calcium (Ca2+), magnesium (Mg2+), and potassium (K+) of groundwater in Fars and Qazvin provinces, data from all groundwater wells was collected and analyzed by the Regional Water Organization. Descriptive statistics, such as mean, median, standard deviation, minimum, maximum, and coefficient of variation, were calculated using SPSS software. The spatial continuity of the variables was described using GS+ software, and the best variogram model was selected based on the coefficient of determination (R2) and the sum of squares of residuals (RSS). The most suitable interpolation method either kriging or inverse distance weighting (IDW) was determined using MAE, MBE, MSE, and MSDR statistics in GS+ and ArcGIS environment. Using the best model and interpolation method, spatial distribution maps were created for each parameter in each year across the entire province. The study also examined the impact of climate change on the drying process of lakes and playas. The results showed that the water quality in the entire province, especially in southern regions of Fars, the features is not in a good condition and the quality of water resources and consequently soil resources are facing serious problems. The temporal trend analysis also revealed that the water quality is deteriorating over time. This is likely due to mismanagement of water and soil resources, leading to the drying up of all lakes in a short period, as well as an increase in temperature and evapotranspiration, and a decrease in precipitation. A 13-year analysis of groundwater quality in Fars Province reveals a significant upward trend in key parameters, with mean EC and SAR increasing by 48% and 35%, respectively posing serious risks to soil and ecosystem health. The southern plains experienced degradation rates 3.5 times higher than the provincial average. Long-term climate data show a 16% decline in annual precipitation and a warming trend of 0.4 °C per decade, alongside a 59.5 mm/year rise in potential evapotranspiration. These combined pressures, along with mismanagement, have led to the complete desiccation of major lakes, including Bakhtegan, Tashk, and Maharloo, indicating a severe environmental shift.

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References

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Dryland Soil Research (DLSR)
Volume 1, Issue 2
December 2024
Pages 117-129

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